The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:41 am

SPX may have reversed from its high to test round number support at 7500.00.  A further decline beneath 7500.00 may offer an aggressive sell signal.

10:33 am

While the SPX is nudging its upper Triangle trendline, the NDX has already pierced its lower Triangle trendline and bounced.  What follows may be a possible panic decline toward 27000.00, as all of the recent leveraged longs and ETFs may have to be unwound.  A further decline beneath the 52-dau Moving Average and lower trendline at 29352.45 may announce the beginning of a rapid descent.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are hovering beneath the Triangle trendline at 7545.00 this morning.  Investors are buying the dip in unprecedented volume as if there is no tomorrow, especially using leveraged ETFs to double down on anticipated gains.  The Cycles Model calls for a “speed bump” that may rattle their resolve, suggesting a downdraft , possibly to 7200.00 or lower.  This is not the beginning of a bear market, but may be the beginning of the end of the bull market.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat on the final trading session of the week, with Tech lagging, as traders hold off on big bets ahead of the weekend, with the fragile truce in the Middle East keeping geopolitical risk front of mind.”

The premarket VIX is hovering near its July 6 low at 15.56 this morning.  However, it may be due for a powerful reversal to test the Cycle Top at 25.79 or the upper trendline of the Triangle formation at 27.50 in the next week or so.  The Cycles Model suggests it may be a very dynamic week.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Goldman Sachs’ volatility desk made the following comment:

“With the VIX back to its lowest levels in more than a month, our Vol desk is focused on hedging opportunities as 1-month S&P implied correlation is near its lowest level in 20 years.” 

Simply, a low VIX can convey a sense of market calm on the surface, yet implied correlation tells a different story.”

The US 10-year Bond Yield declined to 45.21 this morning with the cash market not far behind it.  Thursday’s high may have marked the end of the Master Cycle.  The new Master Cycle is dur to decline until early September, making this decline a strong one.  The Model emphasizes a strong beginning this weekend the may change the current aggressive sell signal to confirmed beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 44.72.

ZeroHedge observes, “On the heels of yesterday’s stellar 10Y auction, this afternoon saw an even more stellar-er 30Y auction with the US government selling $22 billion bonds at 5.058%, the highest result since 2007, vs a 5.061% when-issued yield at the 1 p.m. New York time bidding deadline.”

The US Dollar challenged the Head & Shoulders neckline at 100.80 and emerged back above it.  Should it remain above the neckline, the USD may extend its rally to early August.  In doing so, it may fulfil the Head & Shoulders target at 105.50.  An analysis of the higher degree USD profile suggests the target may extend to 108.00.  Dollar shorts are on tenderhooks.

Bitcoin has made an attempt at a new high this morning, but failed.  Despite the wide swings, the failure to make a new high leaves only one option…a further decline.  The Cycles Model infers the decline may continue to early August.  The first line of defense against the decline occurs at the Cycle Bottom at 54966.00.  Lower potential supports occur at 50000.00 and 45000.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “New Hampshire’s Executive Council narrowly rejected a proposal Wednesday that would have authorized a $100 million Bitcoin-backed bond, ending what supporters hoped would make the state a pioneer in digital asset finance, according to Bitcoin Magazine.”

Crude oil has made a 54% retracement of its reversal from the Master Cycle low.  While it may go lower, the retracement appears to be complete.  Furthermore, the Cycles Model warns of increased volatility/strength beginning this weekend, as President Trump declared an end to the ceasefire.  The new Master Cycle may be primed to accelerate higher to mid-August.

Gold is hovering as it prepares to finish its current Cycle.  What is noteworthy is that trending strength is returning, suggesting the end may not be peaceful.  The default support may be the Cycle Bottom at 3785.00, with a backup support at 3600.00, should the decline extend.  The process may take up to a week to complete.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Gold’s break below key technical support of 4050 to the 4023 low in New York trading on Wednesday appears driven primarily by stop-loss liquidation and positioning rather than a material deterioration in macro fundamentals, according to UBS.”

The Ag Index may have begun its decline after extending its Master Cycle high until yesterday.  There is no signal until it declines beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 359.86.  The decline may only be 4 weeks long, but it may complete near the Cycle Bottom at 339.18.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are consolidating thus far beneath the Cycle Top/trendline resistance near 7550.00-7580.00 and may have begun its descent to/through the lower Triangle trendline.  We see more of a rotation than a sell-off thus far.    The next support is the 52-day Moving Average at 7406.22.  The lower Triangle trendline is at 7350.00.  There may be little or no panic unless the decline extends to July 20, in which case 7200.00 or lower is possible.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher (although off session highs), and oil erased overnight gains as the market moved past the latest Middle-East flare up which saw the US military strike 90 Iranian targets for a second day and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 17.57 this morning.  Should SPX resume its decline, VIX may break out above the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.85.  A brief probe to the Cycle Top resistance at 25.82 may be possible.  However, the upper Triangle trendline is still active,  possibly limiting an excessive surge to 27.50-28.00 at this time.

The US 10-year Bond Yield reversed back beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 45.89 this morning.  The action ended the Master Cycle at yesterday’s high and may have given an aggressive sell signal.  Confirmation may not come until TNX declines beneath Intermediate support at 44.85 or the 52-day Moving Average at 44.65.  Meanwhile, the spike in yields may have raised the discomfort level of US stockholders while foreign buyers helped fill yesterday’s auction.

ZeroHedge observes, “Following yesterday’s stellar 3Y auction, moments ago – with yields surging to the highest level since mid-May – the Treasury completed the sale of $39BN in a 9 Year 10 Month reopening of 10Y cusip QQ7, in what was another spectacular auction.”

The US Dollar appears to be gaining traction at the Head & Shoulders neckline near 100.80.  A breakout above the Cycle Top at 101.20 may launch a very strong rally to, or above, the named target on the chart.   The Intermediate Cycle may focus on a higher target near 108.00.

Bitcoin is consolidating above Intermediate support at 62045.00.  Once beneath that support, downside momentum may carry BTC to the Cycle Bottom at 54910.0.  Outright panic may ensue near the end of July as the decline overrides even the most bearish expectations.

Crude oil has retraced approximately 50% of its rally above the Master Cycle low.  It may retrace a couple more points before resuming its new uptrend.  Trending strength may return this weekend, as the price of crude may rise above the mid-Cycle level at 75.04, confirming a buy signal.

ZeroHedge comments, “Who says price isn’t a rationing mechanism?

Rather than sink billions into long-term oil sands projects, Alberta energy companies are increasingly chasing the Clearwater formation, a conventional heavy oil field that allows producers to capitalize on rising crude prices far more quickly, according to Bloomberg.”

Gold futures jumped today, but no new highs.  The bounce may be a partial retracement of this week’s decline.  The Cycles Model anticipates a possible panic decline early next week.  The intended target may be the Cycle Bottom at 3785.53.  However, it may go as far as the trading channel trendline at 3600.00.

The Ag Index is consolidating, with a potential retest of the Cycle Top resistance at 383.51 today.  A reversal may be in the offing once the retest is complete.  The downswing may last to early August.

ZeroHedge advises, “Cocoa futures in New York have doubled since the start of March and have now climbed back toward levels not seen since late 2025, around $6,000 a ton, as Jefferies analysts warn that a “perfect storm’s a-brewing” across West Africa, the world’s top cocoa-farming region.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

11:28 am

BKX may have ended its Master Cycle at 188.76 yesterday and has fallen through its Cycle Top support/resistance line at 184.39.  This has triggered an aggressive sell signal for banks.  With interest rates higher in the past two months, teetering CRE and auto loans, loans to leveraged ETFs and unprofitable agricultural prices coupled with drought, there is nowhere to turn.  This may be an early indication of insiders bailing at the top.  Bad news may follow.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7419.20 thus far, as it may be testing support at 7399.59.  It is early enough in the new Master Cycle to see SPX declining beneath the lower Triangle trendline at 7350.00 with a more likely target near 7200.00.  There may be at least a week of decline with a possible extension to the week of July 20.  While the decline in the SPX may be near 5%, the NDX decline may be closer to 10% with additional losses for those using leveraged long ETFs.  The  decline has been merciless for the AI sector with weakness spilling over to the broader market.

ZeroHedge reports, “Markets are on the backfoot this morning with equity futures and macro credit under pressure, bond yields spiking, the USD higher, and oil jumping after President Trump thrust geopolitical risks back into focus by declaring the ceasefire between the US and Iran to be over calling it “a waste of time” after the US launched strikes against Iran in response to attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”

The premarket VIX rose to 18.91 this morning before easing back beneath mid-Cycle support/resistance at 18.85.  VIX has been compressed enough to allow a relief rally to the Cycle Top at 25.83 or the upper Triangle trendline.  The market opinion is that the VIX may not represent true volatility seen in individual stocks, especially the AI sector.  A part of the conundrum is the use of call options rather that direct investment into underlying stocks.  The leverage expressed in the options adds a layer of volatility not seen in the indexes.

The US 10-year Bond Yield rose to 45.71 this morning, nearing Cycle top resistance at 45.84.  This action may be nearing the end of the current Master Cycle.  The new Master Cycle may last until early September. The reason that few analysts don’t recognize the pattern is that most analysis is short term.  What we may be witnessing is the end of a massive Primary Cycle lasting approximately 34.4 months.

Crude oil jumped over 5% this morning, creating a buy signal above the 200-day Moving Average at 74.04.  The Cycles Model calls for a possible 6-week rally that may exceed the previous high.

ZeroHedge comments, “Oil prices spiked overnight to three-week-highs after President Trump said that he thought the Iran cease-fire was “over” amid a volatile 24 hours in the Persian Gulf region.”

The USD is challenging the Cycle Top at 101.17.  A clear rally above that level may bring about a further price increase to early August.  Persistent dollar shorts may be hung out to dry as they may be forced to cover.

Bitcoin has declined beneath Intermediate support at 62479.00, confirming the resumption of the decline.  The Cycles Mode suggests another 4 weeks of decline that has a high probability of descending beneath the Cycle Bottom at 54875.00.  An extended Cycle may challenge  the 2024 low at 49202.00.

Gold declined to a morning low at 4034.00.  The Cycles Model suggests another week of decline with rising strength through the weekend.  The Cycle Bottom at 3782.87 is the first line of defense against the decline but, with strength, may give way to the lower trading chanel trendline at 3600.00.

The Ag Index was repelled at the Cycle Top at 383.28, allowing the new Master Cycle to fall as far as the Cycle Bottom at 338.97 by early august.  The rising volatility in agricultural products may eventually send GKX far beyond the Head & Shoulders target.  In the meantime, however, the rising price of oil may have an immediate effect on agricultural prices.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures may have begun pulling away from yesterday’s (final) probe at he upper Triangle trendline.  The correction may last 1-2 weeks as the SPX immediately targets the lower triangle trendline at 7350.00.  A tail may develop, sending the SPX beneath the trendline as a “tail” develops.  A target for the tail may be 7200.00, or possibly lower.  This may feel like a bear market for those investing with leverage, but it is not.

ZeroHedge reports, “Stocks fell as freash volatility hit chipmakers after blowout earnings from Samsung Electronics were still not good enough (the company missed some buyside estimates) and left investors wanting even more, and sent its stock tumbling as much as 11%, forcing another 20 minute halt of the Kospi.”

The premarket VIX is hovering near yesterday’s Master Cycle low.  The Triangle formation must be completed at or beneath point (E).  As a result, another zig-zag may be needed to complete the task, taking more time.  Reaching the terminus of point (E) may be agonizingly slow.  Meanwhile, VIX may rise as correlations break down.  The bid to keep volatility low may break down.

The US 10-year Bond Yield appears stalled at Intermediate resistance near 45.00.  The Master Cycle may have completed at 45.05 on July 2.  However, a clear reversal has not yet been made.  Should it go higher, the target may be the Cycle Top resistance at 45.77.  However, a decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 44.57 may instigate the next move lower.

The USD index is hovering near the Head & Shoulders neckline at 100.85 as it works off its overbought condition.  Once accomplished, this may allow the USD to resume its uptrend above the neckline for another month.

Bitcoin may have completed its corrective rally to 64657.00 yesterday with a resumption of the downtrend on the docket.  The Cycles Model shows bitcoin having a potential to decline to early August.  Round number support lies at 50000.00 while another support level lies near 45000.00.

Crude oil reached a new high at 69.74 this morning, putting last week’s Master Cycle low behind it.  The Cycles Model suggests a rally to mid-August.  Cycle strength may appear this weekend and last through July.

Gold futures are consolidating beneath their peak at 4203.00.  The  bounce may be complete and the decline must continue for another week or so.  The immediate support lies at the Cycle Bottom at 3782.58.  However, there may be a strong pull to the trading channel trendline at 3600.00.

The Ag Index may have completed a double zig-zag corrective bounce to the Cycle Top at 382.71, completing its Master Cycle.  Volatility is spiking and may continue to be strong on the way down, as well.  The Cycles Model gives the emerging decline about a month to completion.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures hovered near 7500.00 over the extended weekend, without making new highs.  Both the Triangle formation and the Cycle Top offered resistance to go higher.  The Master Cycle may have ended on Thursday, raising the probability of a decline lasting from 2 weeks to 1 month or more.  Should it probe beneath the Triangle trendline, a panicky shakeout (tail) may occur, especially damaging to those who used leverage in the prior two weeks.  Regardless the length of the tail, the decline may be considered a correction rather than a bear market at this time.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures point to a firmer cash open as traders return from the long weekend, but the bigger question is whether investors continue to rotate out of the crowded AI trade and into the broader market.”

The premarket VIX has consolidated as well over the weekend after making a potential Master Cycle low on Thursday.  The VIX poses a dilemma in the fact that it has not touched the lower Triangle trendline at point (E), much less declined beneath it.  Some technicians may claim that the Triangle may not be complete, leaving the possibility of an extended “tail” later this summer or fall.  The key may be the failure of the VIX to rise above the  upper trendline approaching 27.50.  If so, the VIX may produce  a declining tail at a later time.

The US 10-year Bond Yield bounced from the 52-day Moving Average at 44.52 this morning, suggesting The Master Cycle may go higher than indicated.  TNX is in the middle of its reversal time and may be extended  to the Cycle Top at 45.74.  If so, a strong decline may follow.  The Cycles Model infers a potential decline lasting to the end of August for TNX.

The USD Index rose back above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation, challenging the Cycle Top resistance at 101.11.  Should it resume its rally above the Cycle Top, it may have the potential of continuing its rally to the end of July.

Bitcoin rose above the Intermediate support/resistance zone at 62493.00, then declined beneath it, offering a sell signal for the longs.  The Cycles Model projects a possible decline to the end of July or possibly early August, suggesting a capacity for a very deep decline.  A target near 45000.00 may be possible.  The idea of bitcoin as a currency is losing credibility.

ZeroHedge observes, “Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million to fund dividends on its preferred securities, the company disclosed in a Form 8-K on July 6, 2026.”

Crude oil futures have risen to 69.26 this morning, suggesting the Master Cycle low may have been made on Thursday.  The Cycles Model offers a reversal from the low, while most technicians may not recognize it until crude rises back above the 200-day Moving Average at 73.96.

ZeroHedge comments, “Brent Crude prices could plunge to as low as $60 per barrel by the end of the year, according to the latest note from Citi’s commodity research team which expects flows through the Strait of Hormuz to soon normalize and the US and Iran to reach a deal in the coming months.”

Gold made a correction high at 4203.14 this morning before reversing down toward the Cycle Bottom at 3779.84, or possibly the lower trading channel trendline near 3600.00.  The current Master Cycle has a possible 1-2 weeks left to run its course.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

2:51 pm

A mini-meltdown may be forming with two weeks left to make a possible new low.  SPX has crossed beneath Intermediate support at 7460.00, with even more weakness beneath the 52-day Moving Average currently at 7394.71.   A target near 7100.00 is possible, shaking out those who re-entered the long side using leveraged ETFs.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are hovering beneath the upper trendline of the proposed Triangle formation near 7522.00.  That may also be the terminus of theformer Master Cycle, allowing a reversal to take place.  As noted earlier, the June 15 high, although higher than yesterday’s, may have been too early, as bother the DJIA and NDX made their highs more than a week later.  The June 25 DJIA high marked the primary high.  The dispersion of the highs suggests that this may not be the all-time high.  The Cycles Model allows a 2-3 week decline that may shake out the weaker hands that expect a continuous rise in stocks.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures have reversed all overnight losses which were driven by the latest crash in South Korean stocks, which plunged 8% and closed at LOD, driven by a plunge in memory stocks.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above yesterday’s low.  Although it may go nominally lower, the Master Cycle may be completed nearer the Cycle Top, delaying the termination of the 2.5 year Triangle.  This Triangle is on a Primary time scale (2-3 years) that is not recognized by most analysts, whose timeframe may be on a minor  scale of 2-3 months, such as the SPX Triangle.

The US Dollar is testing the Head & Shoulders neckline just beneath 101.00, giving temporary relief to the dollar shorts.  Should it remain above the neckline, however, the USD may resume its upward trend.    In doing so, it may reach the Head & Shoulders target as early as August, creating a possible panic among the dollar shorts.

The US 10-year Bond Yield made a nominal new high this morning at 45.05 and immediately reversed.  Should it decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 44.49 it may announce the  end of the current Master Cycle.  Should that be so, it may be evidence of a strong desire for a safe haven, both domestically (SPX) and internationally )USD).

Bitcoin surged higher this morning as it may be completing the correction to Intermediate resistance at 63503.00.  The trend is still down and may resume, with strength, over the weekend.

Crude oil declined to 67.04 this morning, stretching the Master Cycle still further.  Technically, crude may have met its downside limit in this decline.  What follows may be panic rally into mid-August.  The minimum target may be 130.00.  Further analysis may come after the reversal.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

SPX futures reversed in the overnight session, confirming the Triangle formation and completing the (heretofore early) Master Cycle.  This is in agreement with the NDX on June 22 and the DJIA Cycle Top on June 25.  Should the Triangle formation be accurate, the SPX may decline for 2-3 weeks back to or beneath the bottom Triangle trendline near 7300.00.  The dispersion of the Cycle highs inform us that the all-time high is yet to come.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures point to a softer start to the third quarter as investors await a fresh batch of economic data and the first major overseas appearance by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.”

The premarket VIX rose to 17.19 this morning, ending the current Master Cycle.  Should the reversal hold, the VIX may rise to the Cycle Top resistance at 25.82, delaying the completion of the massive triangle formation at or beneath its lower trendline.    Triangle formations are delaying tactics, often frustrating both the bulls and the bears.

The US 10-year Bond Yield leaped above the 52-day Moving Average this morning, challenging Intermediate resistance at 44.91.  The Cycles Model suggests the TNX has another week of rally, putting the Cycle Top in play to complete the current Master Cycle.  Bond volatility is rising to a potential peak next week.

The US Dollar Index continues its bounce this morning, remaining above the Head & Shoulders neckline near 101.00.  While the Master Cycle may be complete as of June 24, there are circumstances that may impel the dollar to go higher in the immediate future, extending the Master Cycle another week or so.

Bitcoin is probing lower this morning, on its way to test the Cycle Bottom at 55345.00.  While the decline appears orderly, it may become more volatile over the next week.  The Cycles Model considers that the current state of affairs may continue to the end of July or early August.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Bitcoin’s latest collapse has broken more than just technical support. The dollar debasement narrative has stopped helping, the relationship with tech has fractured, and even falling volatility is no longer providing relief. Yet as Bitcoin approaches several major long-term support levels, the setup is becoming more interesting than the headlines suggest.”

Crude oil made a nominal new low this morning, potentially extending the Master Cycle another week.  The Model suggests rising volatility this week with a possible panic next week.    Given that the decline is beyond exhaustion, the panis may be on the upside.

Zerohedge comments, “Hormuz vessel traffic continues to flow, but at a sharply reduced pace compared to the previous week, as US-Iran technical talks resume in Doha without senior negotiators meeting face-to-face.”

Gold futures are consolidating today, but still have further to decline, once the consolidation is finished.  The Cycle Bottom at 3773.73 may be the primary target for this decline.  However, it may go as low as the lower trading channel trendline, approaching 3600.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures probed the Intermediate resistance at 7453.27  after yesterday’s strong bounce off the 52-day Moving Average at 7358.36.  A rise above that level brings the SPX to the Cycle Top resistance at 7532.44.  Should it stop there, a Triangle formation may appear, followed by a long tail declining into mid-July, shaking out weak hands.  It may be a miserable experience for those seeking quick and easy returns in leveraged products.

ZeroHedge reports, “US index futures erased an earlier gain following some belligerent Iran headlines, but are still set to end a quarter that is set to be the S&P 500’s best in six years with markets behaving as though period-end dynamics have now completed.”

The premarket VIX continues its decline, but may stop short of the lower Triangle trendline, as the Master Cycle may be due to reverse this week.  The Traingle formation is already 2.5 years long.  It may become notoriously longer.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is probing higher and may challenge the 52-day Moving average at 44.41 in short order.  The Cycles Model allows a week or longer of bounce which may terminate near the Cycle Top resistance at 45.63.

USD is consolidating above the Cycle Top and Head & Shoulders neckline.  While the Master Cycle fulfilled its requirements for completion last Wednesday, it may still extend higher, despite its overbought condition.  USD shorts are in a precarious condition, due to the breakout, which may lead to more short covering.

Bitcoin is diving again, with the Cycle Bottom at 55538.00 in view.  Once the target is met, a bounce may follow.  However, this is not the end of the decline.  The Cycles Model infers a continued decline to early August.

Crude oil has stabilized above its Master Cycle low at 68.56.  Trending strength may appear imminently, guiding crude oil above the mid-Cycle resistance at 74.75 and confirming the reversal.  Once accomplished, the Cycles Model suggests a potential rally to mid-August.

OilPrice.com reports, “Crude oil prices are in freefall after the United States and Iran agreed on a ceasefire, set to last 60 days. Traders expect the ceasefire to unleash an avalanche of crude, and indeed, tankers are leaving the Persian Gulf in growing numbers. And yet Iran just struck a commercial ship in Hormuz.”

ZeroHedge observes, “Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz tumbled since late last week, as ship owners and operators froze up amid the renewed hostilities between Iran and the US over the weekend.”

Gold made a new low this morning, confirming the decline may continue.  The cycles Model infers a continued deterioration, with corrective bounces, to mid-July with a possible target either the Cycle Bottom at 3771.34 or the lower trading channel trendline, approaching 3600.00.  Defenders of gold-as-currency have become silent.

BKX has declined beneath its Cycle Top support/resistance at 182.58.  This action suggests an aggressive sell signal may have been made.  Thus far, the decline may be interpreted as “profit taking” due to the fact that the underlying weaknesses have been camouflaged by a rising market and steady yields in the bond market.

The Ag Index continues its decline toward the Cycle Bottom at 338.79.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may continue to the end of July, when the results of the wheat harvest comes in.  The Ag Index is entering a period of accumulation prices are due to dramatically increase once the bottom is in.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7407.30 this morning after making a higher low on Friday.  Two weeks ago it made a lesser high at 7577.92 in what may be an early Master Cycle high, unless a new high is made in the next week. Thus far, there is no agreement with the DJIA (See below).

The Industrials made a weekend high at 52130.07 thus far, beneath Thursday’s all-time high at 52655.66.  So there is disagreement between the DJIA and the SPX last week, which is causing some confusion.  It also suggests that, while the Industrials made a new all-time high last week it may not be the last.  Equities may make a comeback, led by the NDX, while blue chips lag.  The Cycles Model calls for a 2-3 week correction, not a bear market, prior to a possible recovery to new all-time highs.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher led by Tech as Mag7 leads the group higher and points to a reversal of last week’s profit-taking, as traders position for the end of the first half.”

The premarket VIX continues to consolidate, with a potential week of decline ahead.  The target may be the trendline near 15.00.  However, it may  extend to a deeper level, as we have seen in gold.  The Triangle formation is not complete,, as it tends to be drawn out.

The US Dollar may be testing its Cycle Top/neckline at 100.92 this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests that, the Head & Shoulders formation may follow through to its target by early August.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may  be consolidating, but still has a week or more to complete the current Master Cycle.  A brief retest of the 52-day Moving Average t 44.39 may be in order, but the Model also allows for a retest of the Cycle Top at 45.62, due to the oversold condition.

Bitcoin is consolidating, on its way to test the Cycle Bottom at 55734.00.  That may not be the end of the decline, however, as the Cycles Model projects the current downward shift to continue to early August.  I had earlier suggested that a minimum decline may target 50000.00.  However, a downward revision to 45000.00 may be in order.

Crude oil has risen from its proposed Master Cycle low on Friday.  The ultra-long Triangle tail may be complete, leaving the longs bruised and shaken.  Confirmation lies above the mid-Cycle support/resistance level at 74.69.  The Model projects the rally may last to mid-August.

Gold may be consolidating this morning, with an oversold inclination to bounce.  Should that be the case, its may test Intermediate resistance at 43.78.49 before resuming its decline.  The Cycles Model infers that the decline may terminate by mid-July.  The decline may target either the Cycle Bottom at 3768.08 ot the Ending Diagonal trendline approaching 3600.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Please note:  I may be absent from the blog over the next week for personal reasons.  Comments, if any, may be brief.

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7451.40 this morning, anticipating the market will be closed today (Juneteenth).  Intermediate support at 7436.88 held, allowing SPX to challenge the Cycle Top at 7484.65 after monthly options expiration day.  The Space-X IPO and Kevin Warsh’s influence in the Fed have taken some of the wind out of the market’s sail. Despite waning liquidity, equities appear to be the only game in town at this time.  The Cycles Model suggests next week’s probe may be higher with a possible target near 7750.00.   Should it go higher, a blow-of top may be indicated.  High market strength may be expressed over the next week.   Alternatively, a decline beneath 7400.00 may be a bearish warning that all is not well.

June monthly options expiration may be held on Monday.  While on balance bullish, a large number of call options may be dropping off, leaving the SPX in a more delicate state.

ZeroHedge reports, “Update: the Yo-Yo insanity that is the on again, off again Iran war. Moments after we reported that futures and global risk assets had sold off overnight on a delay to today’s start of peace talks in Switzerland due to Iran’s protest of ongoing violence in Lebanon, moments ago Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah have ​agreed to a ‌ceasefire set to begin at 4 ​p.m. local time ​on Friday, citing a senior US official​.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating, remaining neutral going into the weekend.  The Cycles Model indicates calm ahead, suggesting there is no desire to hedge at this time.  The tranquil outlook may allow the VIX to decline beneath the lower Triangle trendline, possibly matching or exceeding the December low over the next two weeks.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures rose to 44.88 this morning.  However, the market is closed today, so I am showing the weekly chart showing the 2.5 year Triangle formation.  The Cycles Model indicates that TNX may decline to the lower Triangle trendline near 40.00 by mid-July.  It may begin its slope downward as early as this weekend.  That infers both stocks and bonds may rise together in the immediate future.

USD futures rose this morning (not affected by the market closure).  It has broken above the neckline of the proposed Head & Shoulders formation.  The Cycles Model indicates the current Master Cycle has not yet finished, and may do so in strength.  The dollar shorts may be covering, with a possible panic ensuing.to ensue.

Bitcoin has becalmed somewhat after yesterday’s rout.  However, there may be little comfort for the longs, as the decline may resume, with force, this weekend.  The minimum target for this formation may be near 50000.00.  However, the larger picture shows a possible bearish Cup-With-Handle formation with a much deeper possible outcome.

Crude oil futures retested yesterday’s low, which held at 73.58.  It has since gone higher, confirming the Master Cycle low.  Despite the long tail and negative appearance, the Triangle formation is a bullish formation.  A possible minimum target may be near 130.00.  Further analysis may produce a higher outcome.

ZeroHedge observes, “Oil prices are on track to close lower for the week, with WTI futures down more than 9% versus last Friday’s close after the US and Iran secured an interim peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”

Gold futures fell lower this morning, as it may resume its decline.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible decrease in price targeting the Cycle Bottom at 3732.42 by mid-July.  While gold is a store of value in normal times , oil has a greater immediate need by many countries across the globe.